Number of U.S. vegans doubled in 2 years! Or not… (A note on interpretation of survey data)
February 25th, 2012 § Leave a Comment
Some vegan blogs have reported that a recent poll commissioned by The Vegetarian Resource Group and conducted by Harris International shows a dramatic growth in the number of vegans in America (“more than double the number of vegans in the U.S. since 2009“!). I would like this to be true as much as anyone, but the data do not support such claims. Sorry to disappoint you.
It is possible that the number of vegans has, indeed, doubled since 2009. However, based on the results of the 2011 survey, it is just as likely that the number has fallen. Or stayed the same. Here is why we should not use this survey to claim that the number of vegans has grown:
When we deal with figures that are very low to begin with (in 2009, roughly 1% of respondents reported following a vegan diet), even a 200% increase would still fall well within the margin of error (plus or minus 3% in the 2011 survey). The 2011 survey pegs the number of vegans at 2.5%, which means that statistically, there has been no change since 2009. You will notice that The Vegetarian Resource Group’s announcement of the 2011 survey results does not say that the number of vegans has grown. The data simply would not support such a claim.
Here is a more detailed explanation of the statistics behind the 2011 survey. In the methodology section of the survey report we read:
“In theory, with probability samples of this size, one could say with 95 percent certainty that the results for the overall sample have a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. There are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (e.g., non-response), question wording and question order, and weighting. It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.”
This means that in the best-case scenario, we could be 95% sure that all numbers reported in the survey were accurate within a 7-point range (reported number plus of minus 3 percentage points). So, if 2.5% of people report to be vegan, for all practical purposes it is just as likely that the real number is 1% (or even lower) or 5% – unless the numbers are way off, which will happen 1 time out of 20. (This is what researchers mean by “95 percent certainty.”) Now, this best-case scenario is an ideal that few researchers can ever hope to achieve. So, we have to lower our expectations even further (it is hard to tell how much) once we consider that some people who were randomly selected for the 2011 VRG survey did not respond (the number is quite high in most surveys), that the sample was not perfectly representative of the overall population (in this case, the pollsters “weighted” survey data for “age, sex, race, education, region, number of adults in household, and number of telephone lines . . . where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population”), that the wording of the questions and other factors may have influenced respondents’ answers, and other sources of error.
Real sticklers will also note that survey design of the 2009 study was not as rigorous as in 2011, which makes any comparisons even more problematic. Here is what Harris International said about their 2009 survey:
Harris Interactive® fielded the study on behalf of The Vegetarian Resource Group from May 1-5, 2009, via its QuickQuerySM online omnibus service, interviewing a nationwide sample of 2,397 U.S. adults aged 18 years and older. Data were weighted using propensity score weighting to be representative of the the [sic] total U.S. adult population on the basis of region, age within gender, education, household income, race/ethnicity, and propensity to be online. Using traditional methods, with a pure probability sample of 2,397 adults, one could say with a 95 percent probability that the overall results have a sampling error of 2.7 percentage points. However, that does not take other sources of error into account. This online survey is not based on a probability sample, and therefore, no theoretical sampling error can be calculated. Nonprobability samples can still be representative of the population but cannot depend upon the rationale of probability theory (emphasis added).
By the way, bloggers are not the only ones who commonly misinterpret survey results. For a somewhat dated but still interesting example, see Robert Niles’s analysis of a media report on a presidential campaign poll.
Updated on March 5, 2012
Leveling the playing field is not just about fairness: It’s good for business
February 5th, 2012 § Leave a Comment
Capitalism may be going through a full-blown existential crisis, but in the U.S., “socialism” remains a dirty word, and few politicians, policy makers, or mainstream economists seem ready to question capitalism’s fundamental assumptions. Those who are brave enough to advocate for policies that can be described as socialist usually do so on the grounds of fairness and justice for the working masses. Bill Maher’s analysis of the NFL’s business model offers a new line of argument: leveling the playing field is not only morally right – it is also good for business.
Yes, you can keep that New Year’s resolution
January 24th, 2012 § Leave a Comment
When it comes to analyzing human behavior and offering suggestions for optimizing performance, few people are more consistently on point than 
Aubrey Daniels. So, before you give up on that New Year’s resolution, do read his recent post, which offers both a sound diagnosis and a realistic remedy. Here is an excerpt:
“The primary mistake people make in making resolutions is that they think that changing some personal behavior or habit is simply a matter of will power or “making up your mind.” It is as if people who fail don’t grunt enough, don’t have enough resolve (how do you get more of that?), are not really serious (How can you increase your “really seriousness?).
The real mistake lies in not planning or managing consequences well. It is easy to resolve to quit drinking, lose weight, start exercising, etc. but it is harder to plan consequences that you will actually be able to self-administer to get the behavior change you seek. Therefore, the resolution is nothing more than a goal, and goals aren’t reached by grunting, wishing or talking; they are reached when you have consequences that support the behavior change.” Read more →
And if you are in need of a resolution worth keeping, may I suggest giving PCRM’s 21-Day Vegan Kickstart program a try? Moving to a plant-based diet is one of the best things you can do for your health, the environment, and non-human animals. And PCRM’s tips, recipes, and meal plans make it so easy!
Disney’s new musical celebrates stuggle for justice and fair pay
January 24th, 2012 § Leave a Comment
If Occupy Wall Street decided to stage a musical, they could not do better than Newsies. In the event, the new play, which will begin its 
101-performance run on Broadway less than six months after the Occupy movement was born in Manhattan’s Financial District, was produced by Disney, a corporate conglomerate that has had more than its fair share of labor controversies. But don’t let this little bit of irony get in the way of your enjoyment of the show and its unapologetically pro-labor message. From Ticketmaster:
Hailed by Entertainment Weekly as an “extra-extra special production,” and heralded by Newsweek as “the talk of the town,” Newsies makes its Broadway debut at the Nederlander Theatre riding a wave of rave reviews and standing ovations.
Based upon the real-life “Newsboy Strike of 1899,” this high-energy, crowd-pleasing new musical from Disney tells the story of a band of teenaged newspaper boys who become unlikely heroes when they courageously take on the biggest names in publishing. Their battle for justice and fair pay rocks the city of New York and sparks a movement for social change that sweeps across a nation. Filled with heart-pounding dance, heart-stirring songs, with an incredible breakout cast, Newsies is the new, New York musical that delivers a powerful and inspiring tale about standing up today to create a better tomorrow.
A Call to Action and Report from The National Task Force on Civic Learning and Democratic Engagement
January 18th, 2012 § Leave a Comment
If promoting democratic engagement and civic literacy is part of you job or you are simply interested in the topic, you will want to read A Crucible 
Moment: College Learning and Democracy’s Future, a new report by The National Task Force on Civic Learning and Democratic Engagement. Here is a short excerpt from the report:
Ten Indicators of Anemic US Civic Health
1. US ranked 139th in voter participation of 172 world democracies in 2007.
2. Only 10 percent of US citizens contacted a public official in 2009‐10.
3. Only 24 percent of graduating high school seniors scored at the proficient or advanced level in civics in 2010, fewer than in 2006 or 1998.
4. Less than one‐half of 12th graders reported studying international topics as part of a civic education.
5. Half of US states no longer require civics education for high school graduation.
6. Among 14,000 college seniors tested in 2006 and 2007, the average score on a civic literacy exam was just over 50 percent, an “F.”
7. Opportunities to develop civic skills in high school through community service, school government, or service clubs are available disproportionately to wealthier students.
8. Just over one‐third of college faculty surveyed in 2007 strongly agreed that their campus actively promotes awareness of US or global social, political, and economic issues.
9. A similar percentage (35.8 percent) of college students surveyed strongly agreed that faculty publicly advocate the need for students to become active and involved citizens.
10. One‐third of college students surveyed strongly agreed that their college education resulted in increased civic capacities.
Bacon Linked to Higher Cancer Risk (Again)
January 14th, 2012 § Leave a Comment
Anther day, another report of a study linking consumption of animal flesh to cancer. This time, it’s bacon and pancreatic cancer, which has one of the lowest rates of survival: Bacon linked to higher cancer risk – The Irish Times – Fri, Jan 13, 2012.
This is not exactly groundbreaking news, though: World Cancer Research Fund has recommended for years that all processed meats be excluded from human consumption because of their well-documented links to bowel cancer.
Perhaps, one day physicians and public health officials will begin to act on these research findings. Removing products known to cause illness and premature death from hospital menus would be a good start. Also, when a talk show host asks you in front of millions of viewers whether a “healthy diet” can include bacon and smoked meats, please do not be coy and answer “in great moderation” when research clearly calls for an unequivocal “no.” (Yes, Dr. Siddhartha Mukherjee: I am talking about your Nov. 28, 2011 appearance on the Colbert Report.)
For more information about diet and cancer, please visit The Cancer Project and Nutritionfacts.org.
Iraq War Still a Crime Nine Years Later
January 14th, 2012 § Leave a Comment
As the last U.S. military units got ready to leave Iraq at the end of 2011 after almost nine years of occupation, a familiar cast of Bush Administration officials responsible for starting the 2003 invasion and then managing its aftermath hit the talk show circuit one more time. Their message was predictable: it is too early to say how history will judge their decision to invade Iraq, and no, they do not regret their role in the whole affair. That the likes of Condoleezza Rice and Paul Bremer would prefer that their actions be evaluated by future generations of historians is not surprising: after all, by any measure available today the war can be fairly judged as an unmitigated disaster. And so the distinguished guests rehashed the same arguments they had used since 2002: Saddam Hussein did not comply with U.N. Security Council resolutions, he was a ruthless dictator who had used chemical weapons against his own people, everyone believed Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, etc. What was somewhat more surprising was that the talk show hosts mostly treated their guests with the same kind of unquestioning deference that characterized the media’s posture in the run-up to the war, obediently citing the most conservative (and almost certainly understated) estimates of the number of Iraqis who died as a result of the war and allowing long-discredited claims to go unchallenged. It is as if the talk show hosts thought it impolite to contradict their guests by questioning the validity of the peculiar form of consequentialist ethics favored by Iraq war apologists, or by bringing up the long list of former U.S. and British government officials who have described in great detail how senior officials in the Bush Administration pressured intelligence agencies into producing reports that would support their case for war, and how members of the Administration deliberately and systematically ignored and suppressed intelligence that did not fit their preferred narrative.
I happen to think that this kind of politeness is a tad overrated, so, at the risk of being insensitive to the wishes of those who think that nine years after the start of the war the time is till not right to judge it, I’ll go out on a limb and declare Operation Iraqi Freedom a crime. The hundreds of thousands of Iraqis killed in the war, the Abu Ghraib, and the failure to find the mythical weapons of mass destruction are certainly part of the overall picture. But what made the war a crime before any of the above happened was the indisputable fact that from the very beginning, it was a war of aggression, identified by the Nürnberg Tribunal as “the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole.”
The site of the International Criminal Court reminds visitors that the Tribunal “held individuals accountable for ‘crimes against peace,’ defined as the ‘planning, preparation, initiation or waging of a war of aggression, or a war in violation of international treaties, agreements or assurances, or participation in a common plan or conspiracy for the accomplishment of any of the foregoing….’ When the United Nations General Assembly unanimously affirmed the Nürnberg principles in 1946, it affirmed the principle of individual accountability for such crimes.”
I am not so naïve as to think that those responsible for this supreme international crime will be brought to justice any time soon. “International law” remains largely a misnomer when it comes to questions of war and peace, an instrument of victor’s justice in a world where might still equals right. This impunity will help ensure that the American people learn nothing from the experience of the last nine years. (Note the eagerness of most Republican Party candidates for presidency to strike a belligerent pose whenever they talk about Iran.) By pretending that the war was anything but a crime, the media once again fail in their duty of informing the public and thus help lay the groundwork for future wars. U.S. media’s desire to honor the American men and women who were sent into Iraq is understandable, but it must not mean whitewashing history. Those who survived the war can handle the truth.
Beyond Morality: Developing a New Rhetorical Strategy for the Animal Rights Movement
November 29th, 2011 § Leave a Comment
First published in the Fall 2011 issue of the Journal of Animal Ethics. You can read a response by Per-Anders Svärd in the same issue of the journal.
Introduction
Peter Singer ended the last chapter of the 2002 edition of Animal Liberation, the seminal volume first published in 1975 and widely credited with starting the modern animal rights movement, by asking his readers to reflect on the future of the movement’s main project:
Will our tyranny continue, proving that morality counts for nothing when it clashes with self-interest, as the most cynical of poets and philosophers have always said? Or will we rise to the challenge and prove our capacity for genuine altruism by ending our ruthless exploitation of the species in our power, not because we are forced to do so by rebels or terrorists, but because we recognize that our position is morally indefensible? (p. 248)
In this article, I attempt to answer these questions by examining recent successes and failures of the movement, limitations inherent in the movement’s reliance on emotional appeals and rights/sentience-based moral arguments as the key elements of its rhetorical strategy, and alternative rhetorical strategies that address some of those weaknesses. (The fact that Singer had to ask the previously quoted questions in 2002, a quarter century after the first edition of Animal Liberation was published, suggests that the moral arguments employed by the movement do, indeed, have limitations.) Read more →
