Number of U.S. vegans doubled in 2 years! Or not… (A note on interpretation of survey data)

February 25, 2012 § Leave a comment

Some vegan blogs have reported that a recent poll commissioned by The Vegetarian Resource Group and conducted by Harris International shows a dramatic growth in the number of vegans in America (“more than double the number of vegans in the U.S. since 2009“!). I would like this to be true as much as anyone, but the poll does not provide any basis for such a conclusion. Sorry to disappoint you.

It is possible that the number of vegans has, indeed, doubled since 2009. However, based on the results of the 2011 survey, it is just as likely that the number has fallen. Or has not changed at all. Here is why we should not use this survey to claim that the number of vegans has changed since 2009:

When we deal with figures that are very low to begin with (in 2009, roughly 1% of respondents reported following a vegan diet), even a twofold increase would be undetectable in a survey that looks at a sample rather than the entire population, because the change would fall well within the margin of error (plus or minus 3% in the 2011 survey). The 2011 survey pegs the number of vegans at 2.5%, which indicates no statistically detectable change compared to 2009. You will notice that The Vegetarian Resource Group’s announcement of the 2011 survey results does not say that the number of vegans in the U.S. has grown. The data simply would not support such a claim.

Here is a more detailed explanation of the statistics from the 2011 survey. In the methodology section of the survey report we read:

“In theory, with probability samples of this size, one could say with 95 percent certainty that the results for the overall sample have a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. There are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (e.g., non-response), question wording and question order, and weighting. It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.”

This means that in the best-case scenario, we could be 95% sure that any given poll number is accurate within a 7-point range (the reported number plus or minus 3 percentage points). So, if 2.5% of respondents report to be vegan, for all practical purposes it is just as likely that the real number is 1% (or even lower) or 5% – unless poll numbers are way off, which we can expect to happen 1 time out of 20. (This is what researchers mean by “95 percent certainty.”) Now, this best-case scenario is an ideal that few pollsters can ever hope to achieve. So, we have to lower our expectations even further (it is hard to tell how much) once we consider that some people who were randomly selected for the 2011 VRG survey did not respond (the number is quite high in most surveys), that the sample was not perfectly representative of the overall population (in this case, the pollsters “weighted” survey data for “age, sex, race, education, region, number of adults in household, and number of telephone lines . . . where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population”), that the wording of the questions and other factors may have influenced respondents’ answers, and other sources of error.

Real sticklers will also note that survey design of the 2009 study was not as rigorous as in 2011, which makes any comparisons even more problematic. Here is what Harris International said about their 2009 survey:

Harris Interactive® fielded the study on behalf of The Vegetarian Resource Group from May 1-5, 2009, via its QuickQuerySM online omnibus service, interviewing a nationwide sample of 2,397 U.S. adults aged 18 years and older. Data were weighted using propensity score weighting to be representative of the the [sic] total U.S. adult population on the basis of region, age within gender, education, household income, race/ethnicity, and propensity to be online. Using traditional methods, with a pure probability sample of 2,397 adults, one could say with a 95 percent probability that the overall results have a sampling error of 2.7 percentage points. However, that does not take other sources of error into account. This online survey is not based on a probability sample, and therefore, no theoretical sampling error can be calculated. Nonprobability samples can still be representative of the population but cannot depend upon the rationale of probability theory (emphasis added).

By the way, bloggers are not the only ones who commonly misinterpret survey results. For a somewhat dated but still interesting example, see Robert Niles’s analysis of a media report on a presidential campaign poll.

Updated on March 5 and June 2, 2012

Disney’s new musical celebrates stuggle for justice and fair pay

January 24, 2012 § Leave a comment

If Occupy Wall Street decided to stage a musical, they could not do better than Newsies. In the event, the new play, which will begin its Poster Ad for Newsies101-performance run on Broadway less than six months after the Occupy movement was born in Manhattan’s Financial District, was produced by Disney, a corporate conglomerate that has had more than its fair share of labor controversies. But don’t let this little bit of irony get in the way of your enjoyment of the show and its unapologetically pro-labor message. From Ticketmaster:

Hailed by Entertainment Weekly as an “extra-extra special production,” and heralded by Newsweek as “the talk of the town,” Newsies makes its Broadway debut at the Nederlander Theatre riding a wave of rave reviews and standing ovations. 

Based upon the real-life “Newsboy Strike of 1899,” this high-energy, crowd-pleasing new musical from Disney tells the story of a band of teenaged newspaper boys who become unlikely heroes when they courageously take on the biggest names in publishing. Their battle for justice and fair pay rocks the city of New York and sparks a movement for social change that sweeps across a nation. Filled with heart-pounding dance, heart-stirring songs, with an incredible breakout cast, Newsies is the new, New York musical that delivers a powerful and inspiring tale about standing up today to create a better tomorrow.

Beyond Morality: Developing a New Rhetorical Strategy for the Animal Rights Movement

November 29, 2011 § Leave a comment

First published in the Fall 2011 issue of the Journal of Animal Ethics. You can read a response by Per-Anders Svärd in the same issue of the journal.

Introduction

Peter Singer ended the last chapter of the 2002 edition of Animal Liberation, the seminal volume first published in 1975 and widely credited with starting the modern animal rights movement, by asking his readers to reflect on the future of the movement’s main project:

Will our tyranny continue, proving that morality counts for nothing when it clashes with self-interest, as the most cynical of poets and philosophers have always said? Or will we rise to the challenge and prove our capacity for genuine altruism by ending our ruthless exploitation of the species in our power, not because we are forced to do so by rebels or terrorists, but because we recognize that our position is morally indefensible? (p. 248)

In this article, I attempt to answer these questions by examining recent successes and failures of the movement, limitations inherent in the movement’s reliance on emotional appeals and rights/sentience-based moral arguments as the key elements of its rhetorical strategy, and alternative rhetorical strategies that address some of those weaknesses. (The fact that Singer had to ask the previously quoted questions in 2002, a quarter century after the first edition of Animal Liberation was published, suggests that the moral arguments employed by the movement do, indeed, have limitations.) Read more →

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